June 7, 1864---Lincoln is renominated for President; Grim numbers

JUNE 7, 1864:             

The Republican National Convention, meeting in Baltimore, Maryland, nominates Abraham Lincoln and Andrew Johnson as its Presidential candidates.

A rump Radical Republican convention nominates John C. Fremont for President. This splits the Republican ticket --- a bad augury. 

In the mid-19th Century, Presidents rarely served more than one term. William Henry Harrison and Zachary Taylor had both died while in office. Taylor's successor, Millard Fillmore, was not renominated. Neither were John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, James K. Polk, Franklin Pierce, or James Buchanan. So Lincoln is swimming against the tide of the history of his time. 

Lincoln has been an inspiring leader, but no President has ever been more viciously attacked during his incumbency than Lincoln. Whether it is a matter of military significance such as appointing Grant, a matter of social significance such as emancipating the slaves, or a minor matter of personal choice such as which gloves he will wear to the opera, Lincoln cannot escape criticism and direct insult. He is even mocked for wearing his trademark stovepipe hat.

Yet, “The original gorilla” is a consummate politician and a visionary. Though his decisions often flummox both friend and foe and seem wrong in the short term, Lincoln’s vision for the long term is nearly flawless. His major gaffe has been his insistence on seeking a way to resettle the newly-freed blacks outside of the United States. 

In asking Andrew Johnson of Tennessee to be his running mate he makes another fateful mistake. On paper, Johnson is the perfect Vice-President, a loyal Southern War Democrat, the only Southern Senator to remain a Unionist during the war. Lincoln jettisons Maine native Hannibal Hamlin from the ticket in favor of Johnson because Lincoln wants the South to see that his second Administration will one of national reconciliation, not a sectional hornet’s nest.

As a stumping candidate, Johnson is problematical. He is a severe alcoholic, often incoherent, and extremely liable to be indiscreet.  He has all the racial prejudices of his time. Worse yet, he is vindictive and just as vengeful toward Southerners (whom he sees as disloyal) as any Radical Republican. He is reflexively antagonistic toward Northerners (whom he sees as Abolitionists). Despite this, he likes and is personally loyal to the President, and Lincoln assumes that he can keep “Old Andy” on a short tether. Still, "This Johnson is a queer man," Lincoln laments.

The Battle of Cold Harbor      (Day Eight):    The misery in the trenches continues. By this time, the Union entrenchments are as convoluted as the Confederacy’s. 

The Overland Campaign has been effective but brutally costly:

·  The Confederacy inflicts 72,000 casualties on the Union. The Union inflicts 45,000 casualties on the Confederacy. Thus, the Union loses 27,000 more men during the Campaign than does the Confederacy. But these numbers tell only a part of the story ---

·  The most recent statistics have found that Civil War losses are over 700,000. Losses for both sides during the Overland Campaign and the Atlanta campaign (to date) are 120,000. Thus, almost eighteen percent of all Civil War losses occur in one month, between May 1^st and June 6, 1864.

· In the weeks beginning May 1^st and ending June 6^th, the Union sustains 72,000 casualties out of a total effective force of 300,000. In other words, roughly one out of four men in the army as of April 30th is wounded or killed in the month of May 1864.

· Almost all these losses (60,000 for Grant and 10,000 for Sherman) are sustained either in the Overland Campaign or in the Atlanta Campaign. As a combined force, Grant and Sherman have 2/3rds of the army’s manpower (200,000 men). Thus, the Overland and Atlanta Campaigns together cost the army 70,000 out of 200,000 men engaged --- a 33% loss rate.

·  At the close of the Overland Campaign, Grant and Sherman have 130,000 effectives remaining in their combined force. They also have 100,000 men in other Commands available from outside of their combined force. In total, the Union Army has 230,000 men at the end of the Overland Campaign, plus an undrafted reserve (the August draft will call for 500,000 more men).

 

Contrast this with the Confederacy:   

In the weeks beginning May 1st and ending June 6th, the Confederacy sustains 45,000 casualties out of a total effective force of 150,000. In other words, roughly one out of three men in the army as of April 30th is wounded or killed in the month of May 1864.  

Almost all these losses (42,000 for Lee and 3,000 for Johnston) are sustained either in the Overland Campaign or in the Atlanta Campaign. As a combined force, Lee has more than 1/3rd of the army’s manpower (60,000 men) and Johnston has somewhat less than a third (40,000 men). Thus, the Overland and Atlanta Campaigns together cost the army 45,000 out of 100,000 men engaged --- a 45% loss rate. 

At the close of the Overland Campaign, Lee and Johnston have 55,000 effectives remaining in their combined force. They also have 50,000 men in other Commands available from outside of their combined force. In total, the Confederate Army has 105,000 men at the end of the Overland Campaign. All white men fit for duty in the Confederacy are under arms; there is no undrafted reserve. The Confederacy will not begin manumitting and training any of its one million of-age male adult slaves as combat soldiers until February 1865; of these, only a bare score ever go into battle.

Bravery, dash and honor be damned --- Outnumbered better than 2-to-1 the South cannot maintain itself militarily for much longer. 

However, it may not have to. The Northern public has been growing ever more concerned at the mounting casualty figures coming back from the front lines. Many have wondered why it is so expensive in lives broken and taken to travel the one hundred miles from Washington to Richmond. That Grant is within ten miles of that city, and that Sherman is within 20 of Atlanta does not impress the pundits, who are beginning to ask just how many more lives it will cost to actually take Richmond and Atlanta. The renominated President and his new running mate face an uphill battle to the White House.